Insights
Performance, research, and the giving commitment.
Latest updates across performance, research methodology, and the giving commitment.
Performance
Quarterly performance and risk reviews.
Q4 2025 performance update A short, calm quarter. Realised volatility low; net exposure trimmed into year-end. Q3 2025 allocation shift Mid-quarter rebalance toward two newer signal families that cleared the validation gate. Mid-2025 portfolio review Half-year check on signals, drawdowns, and the operational items left over from the spring. Annual 2024 letter to investors Year-end notes on returns, drawdowns, and the operating discipline we plan to keep.
Research
Notes from live research and methodology.
Orthogonality, not correlation, is the alpha question Two signals can be uncorrelated on average and still load on the same risk in the worst week. Capacity is a risk control We treat capacity as a risk parameter rather than a marketing one. The number cannot be optimised away. Where signals decay first Decay is uneven. The first place we see it is execution cost, not raw forecast accuracy. Three tells of an overfit backtest Three patterns we look for before a backtest is allowed into the staging environment.
Charity
Children's health and education. Education and medical treatment for children.
Eight classrooms, ready for term Eight new classrooms across two villages, completed before the start of the school year. The 2026 scholarship cohort Twelve students supported through the end of secondary school. No conditions on field of study. First grant to the Wellcome cohort study A multi-year grant to a long-running cohort study on early-stage detection.